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TSLA dropped below $200 today. As I type the 'DAQ says it's at $200.685.

This looks dire. I predicted an equity dump this year but didn't expect this kind of trouble so soon.

Subtitle of CNBC article: "Shares in Tesla dipped more than 5% on Friday, after a U.S. safety regulator found its Autopilot system was engaged during a fatal Model 3 crash earlier this year."

CNBC is notorious for being hard on Tesla so take them with a grain of salt here: Read the email Elon Musk sent to Tesla employees calling for ‘hardcore’ control of expenses

I always root for the folks in the plant. That area needs those jobs. I fear that the sugar high is turning into a sugar crash, and that a car factory in Fremont (California in general) was never a good idea. Not when I hear talk of paint coming off because of state regulations on materials.
 

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I came to write about this today and saw your post. As much as I am not a fan of Tesla cars I admire what they have managed so far and I really want the company to succeed. But I have always believed it was too much hype and self propagating delusion and I am afraid the bubble is bursting.

I believe there is a real car company somewhere in there (no it is NOT a tech company, it is NOT a startup, let's stop pretending). It needs real management, focus on quality, service, polishing the brand, creating a REAL luxury BEV. It doesn't need "missions" and it needs to stop propagating hype and misleading people about state of technology and needs to learn the basics, like a high quality paint job and details MATTER to a luxury car (not the dreams of summoning your car like a horse).

And honestly this whiplash obsession with kiddy racer speed needs to be replaced by an actual drivetrain that balances ride and dynamics. I can see Tesla being a very successful company making all kinds of BEVs from Audi/BMW level sedans to real compelling two seater sport cars (no not rockets that are so heavy they will fly off the road and can only sustain speed for five minutes).

And I wonder how many more Tesla sedans could be sold in the US if there was a small ReX option available a-la i3 (but actually in a useful configuration) and it removed any final range anxiety. I don't mean a-la Volt for extended drive, but to know you can get to another charging station or get home for that last 30-50 miles.

Obviously it is not the magic company valued higher than major car makers, but it could exist and thrive as an actual small car company valued accordingly.
 

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But I have always believed it was too much hype and self propagating delusion and I am afraid the bubble is bursting.
I'm hesitant to call it the end, but this looks pretty bad.

I believe there is a real car company somewhere in there (no it is NOT a tech company, it is NOT a startup, let's stop pretending). It needs real management, focus on quality, service, polishing the brand, creating a REAL luxury BEV. It doesn't need "missions" and it needs to stop propagating hype and misleading people about state of technology and needs to learn the basics, like a high quality paint job and details MATTER to a luxury car (not the dreams of summoning your car like a horse).
The real car company is already there. It needs to stop paying lip service to an overgrown child.

And honestly this whiplash obsession with kiddy racer speed needs to be replaced by an actual drivetrain that balances ride and dynamics. I can see Tesla being a very successful company making all kinds of BEVs from Audi/BMW level sedans to real compelling two seater sport cars (no not rockets that are so heavy they will fly off the road and can only sustain speed for five minutes).
Excellent points. Refer to my previous comment on an immature leader.

And I wonder how many more Tesla sedans could be sold in the US if there was a small ReX option available a-la i3 (but actually in a useful configuration) and it removed any final range anxiety. I don't mean a-la Volt for extended drive, but to know you can get to another charging station or get home for that last 30-50 miles.
Yes, EXACTLY like a Gen 1 Volt. It's the genius car of this century. I ask the wife whose daily driver it would be about this or that car. The Kia Niro was just highlighted on the Motor Trend channel. She wants the gas option. I can't fault her for it.

Obviously it is not the magic company valued higher than major car makers, but it could exist and thrive as an actual small car company valued accordingly.
It's far enough along to survive if someone would stop doing bullsh*t autopilot events, and start designing cars that don't all look the same. Model Y was a huge letdown. There will be no pickup (you heard it here). The semi is unlikely. Where's that roadster 2?

Too much bullsh*t, not enough results. This is the fault of one man who can't be controlled, or control himself.
 

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Drop Musk. Get real management. I know somebody with tremendous experience and skill who joined the company, super excited, and then left shortly after because of all the horrible dysfunction and lies. I'm getting nervous about warranty support for my powerwalls.
 

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Ouch.

On the other hand, publicly traded companies have some options to explore for survival. Chapter 11 anyone? American airlines for example?

Even at $100 a share TSLA would likely be too much for a hostile takeover or a friendly acquisition.

It will stick around for a while I think. Remember Apple? And I agree that that 'while' would best be spent on quality and reputation instead of hype. If they do go into Chapter 11 at some point, that's what will have to happen, along with a change in leadership.
 

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Remember Apple? And I agree that that 'while' would best be spent on quality and reputation instead of hype. If they do go into Chapter 11 at some point, that's what will have to happen, along with a change in leadership.
But part of Steve Jobs genius (yes he had flaws but people don't give him enough credit as a business man) was to hire exceptional managers and designers and let them do their thing. And that is why Apple became what it is and why it manages to coast along after him.

I don't see Steve Jobs having told Cook he doesn't know anything or ever having said "I must sign off on every purchase."
 

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Drop Musk. Get real management. I know somebody with tremendous experience and skill who joined the company, super excited, and then left shortly after because of all the horrible dysfunction and lies. I'm getting nervous about warranty support for my powerwalls.
Exact reason I didn't consider powerwalls. Combined with too many posts online about users that have issues with their powerwalls and then taking months to get them resolved, and in the meantime, they pay for the system and don't get compensated for the lost power they pay to the utility. I have a guarantee from my installer that I will be covered during warranty coverage for the first 10 years on the battery.

Tesla is a company that is trying to do too many things just okay instead of a few things great. Their leadership is pulling them apart bit by bit and will be the demise of them until they get a real independent board that smacks them with a wake up call about bringing value back to the shareholders while trying to be great in what they should focus on.
 

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Exact reason I didn't consider powerwalls. Combined with too many posts online about users that have issues with their powerwalls and then taking months to get them resolved, and in the meantime, they pay for the system and don't get compensated for the lost power they pay to the utility. I have a guarantee from my installer that I will be covered during warranty coverage for the first 10 years on the battery.

Tesla is a company that is trying to do too many things just okay instead of a few things great. Their leadership is pulling them apart bit by bit and will be the demise of them until they get a real independent board that smacks them with a wake up call about bringing value back to the shareholders while trying to be great in what they should focus on.
Our system took forever to get certified by the power company, but it was already one anyway since we had solar running. That said, as a product, Powerwalls are simply fantastic. We've had a few power outages, and while our neighbors are futzing with generators or sitting in the dark, we're taking showers and running the heat pump. On neighbor did a roll your own system, but it only runs have of his house and doesn't charge off solar when the power is out. Meanwhile, I could go pull the main breaker right now and live all summer, assuming I charged the EV only some from home.
 

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There are other reasons I didn't pick powerwalls: self control/programmability, integration with Solar to create a micro grid which is what I have, installation cabinet instead of on wall, depth of discharge/charge cycles, and other factors that weighted into my decision. Granted some people are happy, but I was looking at will this battery still serve me in 20 years and give me a better payback. Tesla is very coy about the battery chemistry in the powerwall and the usage scenarios that allow full warranty coverage. I picked a Sonnen battery because it is the battery for the zombie apocalypse, can't say the same for the powerwall. The Pika came in second for me for reference.
 

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I figure if the zombies come, I'm dead anyway. I'd rather have everything automated and easy. If I wanted to be totally off grid forever, I'd go with nickel iron maybe. Fifteen years from now, I'll probably be in a different house anyway.
 

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I was an early Model S adopter, ordering the P85 shortly after it was launched. That car is still a blast to drive with 120k miles on it. I just added an I-Pace instead of a Model 3 because I like the design and luxury better on the I-Pace. I truly hope that Elon will recognize that he needs a strong COO to operate the car business day to day while some other divsion is formed to explore the other technologies that catch his fancy.
 

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Discussion Starter #13
Two Investor Place opinions on TSLA. The first is the bull, from March:

Why the Long-Term Bull Thesis on Tesla Stock Remains Strong

Read it and know what "drinking the Kool-Aid" means. For example:

Tesla remains on track to one day be the world's most important auto company, so TSLA stock should be bought at its current levels
And if you did buy it in March you're probably sorry right now.

Luke Lango is long on TSLA.
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The bear, from April:

Tesla Stock Is in Trouble

A Final Word on Tesla Stock

The fact is that TSLA will no longer be the de facto choice for consumers interested in purchasing electric vehicles. Its already-tenuous sales will be assaulted from all sides. And until actual Model Ys, Tesla Semis, and Tesla Pickups arrive, investors can’t assume Tesla will even be able to properly manufacture those vehicles.

TSLA did indeed once have a first-mover advantage. Despite the company’s inability to execute, Tesla stock has soared. However, TSLA is not a leader in battery technology. It’s not going to be saved by the Chinese market, which is already saturated with extremely competitive local companies. And TSLA will not be a leader in electric-vehicle technology.
Luce Emerson is short on TSLA.
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My take: Model Y is unlikely to happen under the current circumstances. The pickup isn't even a concept drawing yet. The semi has a long way to go and is hardly proven for class 8 OTR long-haul trucking. Otherwise the semi is just another me too in electric short-haul trucking, and will be way too expensive (or sell at a loss).

If you think my opinion is negative (It is now!) then try this one from Morgan Stanley:

Tesla stock’s ‘bear case’ is $10, Morgan Stanley says

$10/share will be the end. I think that's a bit hyperbolic. I heard a projection of $100/share a day or two ago. That could be more realistic as a bottom.
 

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$10 a share is definitely hyperbole in the opposite.
TSLA has a book value of 26.52 per share as of this morning. If the shares drop low enough, it becomes a take over target. The market is good, the brand name still has some value, and a strong car manufacturer could solve a lot of the production and delivery problems. So somewhere between $100/share and $27/share, there will be an option to take over the company.
 

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$10 a share is definitely hyperbole in the opposite.
TSLA has a book value of 26.52 per share as of this morning. If the shares drop low enough, it becomes a take over target. The market is good, the brand name still has some value, and a strong car manufacturer could solve a lot of the production and delivery problems. So somewhere between $100/share and $27/share, there will be an option to take over the company.
I think you're underestimating what a **** show Tesla is. In due diligence, an acquirer would have no idea what liabilities they're exposing themselves to because Tesla can't possibly even know themselves. I had a chance to have dinner and drinks with a former c-level executive there who noped the heck out after joining and I don't think the general public has the slightest idea of how bad/disorganized it is. I can't see a company buying them, rather they'd wait to bid on the pieces in a BK asset disposition sale.
 

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Discussion Starter #18
I wouldn't buy it with epirali's money. I know what a sh*t show looks like from the inside.

That said, anything can be turned around. It just takes leadership.

When epirali buys it he can hire me. I'll straighten things out. ;)
 
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