Jaguar I-Pace EV400 Forum banner

21 - 40 of 48 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
112 Posts
Curious:

I would expect the i-Pace to be selling like hot cakes ...

Production is limited to 20K units per year ...

People are still getting delivery dates "soon". Why is that? Either Jag have not taken 20K orders, or they can ramp up (which I have always assumed was not possible because unlimited battery-supply is not available)
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
15 Posts
Fuji white was my choice...supposed to get it delivered late October/early November. First customer delivery in N Texas - wish me luck!?
 

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
1,452 Posts
I actually want the tax credit for 2019 ... hoping it won't be revoked for 2019 but I don't think it will and if it does I can pre-pay I'm sure.

I ordered it now because I expect a surge in orders once it hits the showrooms in the US
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
309 Posts
Curious:

I would expect the i-Pace to be selling like hot cakes ...

Production is limited to 20K units per year ...

People are still getting delivery dates "soon". Why is that? Either Jag have not taken 20K orders, or they can ramp up (which I have always assumed was not possible because unlimited battery-supply is not available)
Well, hot cakes are tastier, and a whole lot cheaper than the I-Pace...

I don't think they've taken anywhere near 20k orders (excluding Waymo). My dealer is in Newport Beach, California which is basically world headquarters for tree-huggers, conspicuous consumers, virtue-signalers, and EV proponents, and it doesn't feel like even here they have more than a handful of orders so far. I too found this surprising, but I guess cars that cost $85,000 and can't go 300 miles without an hour-long fill-up are still a pretty small niche market.>:)
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
112 Posts
I guess cars that cost $85,000 and can't go 300 miles without an hour-long fill-up are still a pretty small niche market.
That'll be it ... no one would buy one of those !!

The only big negative is the lack of widespread CCS charging. I can't believe that is, solely, going to suppress sales to under 20K units p.a.. Loads of people (if not in America, then certainly in Europe) never drive more than 200+ miles in a day.

Maybe the early-adopters all already bought Tesla, and anyone who would buy a Jag is from the remainder of the cautious segment of the population and want it to have been "proven" before they buy. My thought was that any half-Eco existing Jag driver would have snapped one of these up sight-unseen by now.

Good job its not all down to me!
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
238 Posts
I agree that many early-adopters already have Teslas. For me the differentiators that finally tipped the scale are entry-level pricing/reasonable option pricing, interior (less spartan), and versatility (off-road capability). RE: pre-orders, I'm in a tiny market that is flooded with Teslas (Carmel/Monterey) and I'm apparently #2 waiting, having ordered last week.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
112 Posts
interior (less spartan).
Yeah, that's another thing. Loads of people must hate the minimalist interior of the Tesla. Deffo should be more pre-orders for the Jag I reckon. Something doesn't add up ...

... if it turns out that Jag CAN ramp up, and are NOT battery constrained then bully for them :)

Thinking about it:

No on else ?? is using a 90kWh battery (Tesla are making their own), so perhaps battery manufactures do have capacity, until other Marques come online, and Jag can mop up all their build-capacity

Although I suppose a 90kWh battery is just "more little batteries" so still the total number of "little batteries" is finite.

Maybe Tesla are secretly selling Jag batteries in order to achieve the mythical profitability by Q4 ...
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
309 Posts
That'll be it ... no one would buy one of those !!
Right, only a few suckers like us!
Maybe the early-adopters all already bought Tesla, and anyone who would buy a Jag is from the remainder of the cautious segment of the population and want it to have been "proven" before they buy.
Many of the Tesla early adopters are wealthy, and would have no problem trading or just adding the Jaguar. I was expecting a lot of this, as Teslas are now as common as dirt around here, and are no longer the status symbol they once were. But it seems the I-Pace has not caught on as the new status symbol (or virtue symbol), at least not yet.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
309 Posts
Maybe Tesla are secretly selling Jag batteries in order to achieve the mythical profitability by Q4 ...
That seems highly unlikely. As far as is known, Tesla has no capacity to manufacture battery cells; Tesla's cells are produced by Panasonic.

I think it's the battery shortage that is mythical. There are some pretty big battery suppliers in the market - Samsung, Panasonic, LG, and Chinese. Furthermore, Tesla is way behind its planned production levels - what was it, half a million cars this year? With all those cars not being built yet, the available battery cell supply in the market should be ample for now. Longer term there are some potential constraints on commodity supplies (cobalt, for example), but I don't imagine that's Jaguar's bottleneck today.

Perhaps Jaguar's attitude is more like General Motors' - EVs are still very expensive compared with ICE vehicles, so there's little or no profit in them. So makers can dip their toe in the water, develop some capabilities and regulatory compliance credits, and sell just a few cars for now. Getting ready to sell in big volume once costs are competitive and the market and infrastructure are ready. Seems sensible to me.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
112 Posts
Tesla has no capacity to manufacture battery cells
Yes, sorry, I was being facetious. Tesla car production rate appears to be using 100% of the Gigafactory battery production ... and yet they are still producing some static storage (but delaying shipping PowerWalls ...)

I think it's the battery shortage that is mythical
I definitely am not with you on that one. I don't doubt that there is some slack at present, but I don't think there is anything like enough world capacity for all the car makers that are about to launch vehicles. All these New Marques are additional requirements to existing battery supply ... so will need new capacity.

1M cars p.a. with 75kWh battery average is 75 gWh. Tesla Gigafactory current production rate is 20gWh p.a. (and in their quarterly results they state that Gigafactory is "the highest-volume battery plant in the world by a significant margin") so we need 4x that output for 1M cars per annum

If all the "coming soon" models only sell 20K units p.a. that is still in the region of 500K cars p.a., so 2x size of current Giga factory output in new, additional, battery production.

Tesla is way behind its planned production levels - what was it, half a million cars this year? With all those cars not being built yet, the available battery cell supply in the market should be ample for now.
Indeed. Although Tesla currently at 5K Model-3 (and some more M-S and M-X) units per week, so 250K p.a., and projected to be at 10K per week / 500K p.a. within a year, plus 88K M-S / M-X p.a..

That strengths my earlier point that an early follower, like Jag, is likely to have available battery supply and can ramp up if they attract orders. I seriously hope that Jag manages to do that, as its a great car with a great spec.

makers can dip their toe in the water, develop some capabilities and regulatory compliance credits, and sell just a few cars for now. Getting ready to sell in big volume once costs are competitive and the market and infrastructure are ready.
Wouldn't be the first time that the pioneering disrupter has trailblazer, but the followers have repeat the rewards ...
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
309 Posts
I definitely am not with you on that one. I don't doubt that there is some slack at present, but I don't think there is anything like enough world capacity for all the car makers that are about to launch vehicles. All these New Marques are additional requirements to existing battery supply ... so will need new capacity.
When capacity is needed, free markets seem to find ways to provide it. Adding manufacturing capacity is relatively simple, and is already being done. Mining sufficient lithium and cobalt and such may be harder, but is also doable. For a price.

Price is always the problem. That's why EV adoption is painfully slow, and why it will continue to be painfully slow, until some technological/economic breakthrough (in batteries or fuel cells or some other energy storage solution) which may or may not ever happen. Meanwhile, EVs are fun and cool, but economically uncompetitive. Still, I thought the I-Pace would sell faster than it has so far.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
112 Posts
When capacity is needed, free markets seem to find ways to provide it
Yes, I agree with all your points. Good point about price vs. supply & demand too, hadn't considered that (and the potential impact on EVs from any manufactures who have not secured battery orders). My concern is the lead time for new Gigafactories. I imagine the money can be found to build them, but they don't spring up overnight, and battery makers are, presumably?, not going to build them speculatively without some orders. Although I guess they too have a dilemma:
  • We can sell all we can produce
  • Shall we spend $1B on a new factory
  • If we don't will a competitor?
  • Will we be building it for the chemistry that everyone will want?
Maybe those are normal decisions for those type of industries, but feels like "big dice to roll" to me !

VW planning to build a battery factory ...

... whereas Nissan has been trying to sell-off its facility (I think it has just done that)
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
309 Posts
My concern is the lead time for new Gigafactories.
Are we sure that battery factories must be 'giga'? Samsung and LG don't seem convinced, and they know a thing or two about large scale manufacturing.

Giant mega-factories would seem to be a slow, ponderous response to a rapidly developing market like EV batteries. How many years has it taken Tesla to complete just 30% of its first gigafactory? Smaller, more nimble, more numerous factories will be a much quicker and more flexible solution during the rapid-growth phase for a commodity product like battery cells. Maybe someday when the market is mature, gigafactories will deliver useful economies of scale, but for the next decade or two, they are likely to be wasteful boondoggles. Better to wait until demand levels and product formats are clear and predictable, then build your giant lumbering gigafactory. Meanwhile, if demand continues to increase, I expect someone will find a way to meet it.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
112 Posts
Are we sure that battery factories must be 'giga'?
For me its only the quantity of batteries that will be required. Agreed, the "how" part is up to the manufacturers. Tesla is, in part, about "show". I suspect Gigafactory has much more to do with Nevada's tax breaks ...

Either way, it needs a heck of a lot of, new, product capability
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
21 Posts
I am a bit worried about the Corris Grey. Seems like A LOT are ordered in this color. ME-Too. But maybe (at least for a couple of years) there will be so few of this new vehicle that I don't have a worry? What do you think.

Also, I"m told by the dealer to expect my auto late fall. Can't Wait!! Ordered Full Maxed Out-- HSE
 
21 - 40 of 48 Posts
Top