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... I'd be afraid. Very afraid.


China will be able to produce high quality EVs with equal or better capabilities but at much lower cost than the West ... if they manage to establish competent dealers / sales and service / support beyond their borders it will be challenging times for Western legacy and challenger automakers
Interesting articles and impressive numbers, but not the death knell of legacy makers at this point. A few questions need to be asked;
battery stability?
infrastructure? - where do you find a charger capable of adding 100miles in 5mins?
intellectual property - are SiC battery patents held exclusively by this organization and even if this a yes "what timeline is left on these patents?".

As a comparison China and the Far East make steel at cheaper rates than the US, but Ford and Chevy still make steel based cars. My opinion is that batteries will be ultimately made by battery manufacturers (possibly directly for an auto maker at a specific site) and Ford, Chevy and everyone else can go on with making what they know how to design, make, market, and service - cars and trucks.

Again, interesting technological advance, but a touch of hyperbole as well.
 

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China has largely succeeded on the merit of low cost, despite questionable quality. The only Chinese-designed equipment I buy that is of actual quality is designed and built in HK. The rest is often made in China but engineered elsewhere.

600 amps in a power cord is a pretty scare thing to engineer for. That is a ton of heat. You could certainly make and release something in China, but one or two failures is going to be a problem in the US. Even though it might peak at 600 amps, it won't stay there if they want decent battery life. Teslas can peak at what, 150 amps? But the charge speed quickly falls off. Why? Battery technology is the limit. This 80% in 30 minutes stuff is at the I'll believe it when I use it stage. 5 minutes? That's a stretch.

Also, @sciencegeek, didn't you have a German flag not long ago?
 
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China has largely succeeded on the merit of low cost, despite questionable quality. The only Chinese-designed equipment I buy that is of actual quality is designed and built in HK. The rest is often made in China but engineered elsewhere.

600 amps in a power cord is a pretty scare thing to engineer for. That is a ton of heat. You could certainly make and release something in China, but one or two failures is going to be a problem in the US. Even though it might peak at 600 amps, it won't stay there if they want decent battery life. Teslas can peak at what, 150 amps? But the charge speed quickly falls off. Why? Battery technology is the limit. This 80% in 30 minutes stuff is at the I'll believe it when I use it stage. 5 minutes? That's a stretch.
Purdue University and Ford have developed a charger cable capable of 2500A.
Ford And Purdue Develop Alternatively-Cooled Fast Charging Cable (insideevs.com)

Of course, there are no EVs that are capable of receiving 2500A at present. Corresponding parts on the car have to be able to handle the high current. It is certainly something that charging properly equipped semi-trucks could use for their high capacity batteries and enable cross-country trips.
 

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If you are not old enough to remember: After WW II we helped Japan recover. They took it and ran with it. American businesses' suffered, but in the end things got somewhat better. There are now some good car makers in Japan and the US is full of Japanese designed cars. Competition makes for a better product. FORD and GM are still around.
 

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Yes, Chinese automakers are not yet up to par, compared to their established counterparts in other countries, but make no mistake: they will get there.

It was the same thing with mobile phones up until a few years ago, when "suddenly" Chinese manufacturers like Huawei caught up and then (much to a lot of people's surprise) actually got a technological lead. So much so that the US was forced to admit defeat and resort to political measures like stripping them of access to Google services.

But when the same thing will happen with cars, I don't know if there will be anything they can ban them from. If anything, the Chinese hold more cards like access to rare earth metals etc. Yes, the US might ban imports, but that's just one market.
 

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Yes, Chinese automakers are not yet up to par, compared to their established counterparts in other countries, but make no mistake: they will get there.

It was the same thing with mobile phones up until a few years ago, when "suddenly" Chinese manufacturers like Huawei caught up and then (much to a lot of people's surprise) actually got a technological lead. So much so that the US was forced to admit defeat and resort to political measures like stripping them of access to Google services.

But when the same thing will happen with cars, I don't know if there will be anything they can ban them from. If anything, the Chinese hold more cards like access to rare earth metals etc. Yes, the US might ban imports, but that's just one market.
We saw a similar situation with Japanese and Korean manufacturers in the last three decades of the 20th century. For those two young to have witnessed, the early 70's Datsuns and Toyotas were of poor quality and durability. My father was the proud buyer of a brand new canary yellow Datsun Cherry in that time period - total rust bucket within 3yrs.
Quality improved. Ford, GM, and Chrysler upped there game eventually to compete.

One factor to consider is the long development time in the auto industry that limits the yrs that novel technology will reap unique profits due to expiration of patent rights. That essentually reduces the business to making a product that the buyers want at a price they will pay.
 

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A lot of China's sudden catch up is thanks to pure theft of technology. Their government is corrupt, and their successes are based partly on willingness to have their own people suffer and die. China is a competitive, but the issues are huge and dangerous.
 

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A lot of China's sudden catch up is thanks to pure theft of technology. Their government is corrupt, and their successes are based partly on willingness to have their own people suffer and die. China is a competitive, but the issues are huge and dangerous.
Yes, your argument has a lot of truth in it, but is also partly flawed:

a) Yes, China has been stealing technology, but when it became truly dangerous was when it got the lead in some areas, like the one I mentioned above. And you can't really be the leader by stealing, can you? So, to dismiss its capabilities by saying "oh, they're just thieves" is a bit short sighted and dangerous for you.

b) China does indeed allow for their people to suffer in order to succeed. I, for one, wouldn't want to have been born in China. An objective third party however (i.e. not American) might note that the US allows (and has been doing so for the past decades) for other people to suffer in order to ensure its success, which is arguably worse. Unless you really believe that all those wars (conventional, economic etc) have been waged on ethical grounds and for the benefit of humanity.

c) We might blame the Chinese government for allowing things like the stealing of technology etc. but we also saw that the US government has no problem to blatantly ignore market laws and competition by intervening when its companies are losing battles. The case of Huawei mentioned above is one example, the case of TikTok is another. And who knows how many other cases have been in less publicized areas.

It's easy to take the higher ground when you're winning. What you do when you start to lose is what really defines you.

d) Finally, one would argue that it doesn't really matter why China is competitive. If the West wants to stay ahead (or even relevant) it needs to find ways to up its game. Accusing China for all of the above might make us feel better but is not doing us any actual good.
 

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Great analysis, @symos! Couldn't agree more while also acknowledging that there has been plenty of IP theft by China (just look at their high speed trains, they look identical to Japanese ones; ok that's anecdotal but there's nothing like a good visual).

I've worked with several Chinese nationals who came to the US for their PhDs or postdoctoral work. Some stayed in the US. Some went back to China, taking what they've learned with them. The domestically or US-educated talent pool in China is extraordinarily deep. For now. If the repressive regime becomes too odious to the educated elite it may backslide. But right now China has amazing talent ... and motivation.
 

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Yes, your argument has a lot of truth in it, but is also partly flawed:

a) Yes, China has been stealing technology, but when it became truly dangerous was when it got the lead in some areas, like the one I mentioned above. And you can't really be the leader by stealing, can you? So, to dismiss its capabilities by saying "oh, they're just thieves" is a bit short sighted and dangerous for you.

b) China does indeed allow for their people to suffer in order to succeed. I, for one, wouldn't want to have been born in China. An objective third party however (i.e. not American) might note that the US allows (and has been doing so for the past decades) for other people to suffer in order to ensure its success, which is arguably worse. Unless you really believe that all those wars (conventional, economic etc) have been waged on ethical grounds and for the benefit of humanity.

c) We might blame the Chinese government for allowing things like the stealing of technology etc. but we also saw that the US government has no problem to blatantly ignore market laws and competition by intervening when its companies are losing battles. The case of Huawei mentioned above is one example, the case of TikTok is another. And who knows how many other cases have been in less publicized areas.

It's easy to take the higher ground when you're winning. What you do when you start to lose is what really defines you.

d) Finally, one would argue that it doesn't really matter why China is competitive. If the West wants to stay ahead (or even relevant) it needs to find ways to up its game. Accusing China for all of the above might make us feel better but is not doing us any actual good.
I don't think I was really making much of an argument.

If I invest a billion in R&D, I have a billion less for production. If you steal my R&D and invest in production, with near slave labor, I will not be able to compete, and you will be the market leader.

If you are willing to bribe and steal your way into cheaper resources, and I have to pay higher prices, you will be the market leader.

Etc. etc.

A lot of evil can be laid at the feet of US policy. A lot of evil continues across the world. Still, I think you make common but false moral equivalencies.

I know families who live and work in China. They send their kids here for educations, and their kids tend to stay here to work and live, too. My wife has stated a few times that she never wants to go back to China, though we still send her family some money. A lot of smart people got out of HK before the fall, and a lot have wished they left before the walls went up. A state where people don't want to live is a state that rots from the inside. The whole real estate collapse in China is terribly dangerous. Sadly, a bad apple on the planet can spoil the whole barrel.

I know a handful of families that headed back to China because of the pandemic and California lockdowns, but they were recent transplants so their ties were strong back there.

Meanwhile, the whole Bay Area is intensely vibrant and productive, thanks in large part to all the immigrants we attract. I'll take the horrors of freedom, like drug abuse and homelessness, over the far greater horrors of totalitarianism.

The TikTok thing is interesting. I think all social media should burn in a huge dumpster fire. I know, that's so meta of me. But the Trumpster fire failed to burn TikTok because the US is a nation with rule of law.

Have you ever used TikTok? It makes your brain melt within seconds. A weapon of mass brain corruption.

I just wish Indian restaurant food wasn't always so darned spicy. Is that off topic?
 

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I just wish Indian restaurant food wasn't always so darned spicy. Is that off topic?
Nope, that’s probably the level of political discourse that should be on the forums anyway. Personally, the spicier the better. It turns out that the older you get the spicier you like your food as your taste buds sort of lose their sensitivity or something like that.
 

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@jsimon7777

I don't disagree with what you're saying. I already told you, China would be one of the last places on earth where I would want to have been born.

I also agree on social media. I use none and that obviously includes TikTok.

But don't tell me the problem with TikTok is that it's a bad influence while the rest of them (Instagram, Snapchat, Facebook etc.) are better. The problem with TikTok was that it was the first mainstream social media platform that was not US-owned or controlled.

And I'm not even saying that the US trying to protect its interests is bad, because it's not. I just like to be as objective as possible and call things by their name.
 

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But don't tell me the problem with TikTok is that it's a bad influence while the rest of them (Instagram, Snapchat, Facebook etc.) are better. The problem with TikTok was that it was the first mainstream social media platform that was not US-owned or controlled.
Facebook is the worst, because it encourages hateful discourse. Twitter is the second worse, because it does the same but not as badly. There's those conservative networks, but not many people use them, so they don't matter. Tiktok is bad because it's so good at sucking brainpower away.

I am on nextdoor, my only social media I use even semi-regularly. It's great for finding or returning a stray dog, goat, cow, or emu. To be clear, all four of those species came up in the last three weeks. I'm not being silly. I'm never silly.
 

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Facebook is the worst, because it encourages hateful discourse. Twitter is the second worse, because it does the same but not as badly. There's those conservative networks, but not many people use them, so they don't matter. Tiktok is bad because it's so good at sucking brainpower away.

I am on nextdoor, my only social media I use even semi-regularly. It's great for finding or returning a stray dog, goat, cow, or emu. To be clear, all four of those species came up in the last three weeks. I'm not being silly. I'm never silly.
Funny, in the past week I’ve seen dogs, cats, ducks, rabbits, and cows come up lost or found on Nextdoor. And a couple of months ago, a parrot and some parakeets.
 

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Funny, in the past week I’ve seen dogs, cats, ducks, rabbits, and cows come up lost or found on Nextdoor. And a couple of months ago, a parrot and some parakeets.
If people spent less time reading their social media and more time being aware of what's going on around them, they wouldn't lose their "dogs, cats, ducks, rabbits and cows", nor their parrots, parakeets.
 
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