TSLA in trouble - Jaguar I-Pace EV400 Forum
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post #1 of 601 (permalink) Old 05-20-2019, 11:44 AM Thread Starter
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TSLA in trouble

TSLA dropped below $200 today. As I type the 'DAQ says it's at $200.685.

This looks dire. I predicted an equity dump this year but didn't expect this kind of trouble so soon.

Subtitle of CNBC article: "Shares in Tesla dipped more than 5% on Friday, after a U.S. safety regulator found its Autopilot system was engaged during a fatal Model 3 crash earlier this year."

CNBC is notorious for being hard on Tesla so take them with a grain of salt here: Read the email Elon Musk sent to Tesla employees calling for hardcore control of expenses

I always root for the folks in the plant. That area needs those jobs. I fear that the sugar high is turning into a sugar crash, and that a car factory in Fremont (California in general) was never a good idea. Not when I hear talk of paint coming off because of state regulations on materials.
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post #2 of 601 (permalink) Old 05-20-2019, 12:16 PM
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I came to write about this today and saw your post. As much as I am not a fan of Tesla cars I admire what they have managed so far and I really want the company to succeed. But I have always believed it was too much hype and self propagating delusion and I am afraid the bubble is bursting.

I believe there is a real car company somewhere in there (no it is NOT a tech company, it is NOT a startup, let's stop pretending). It needs real management, focus on quality, service, polishing the brand, creating a REAL luxury BEV. It doesn't need "missions" and it needs to stop propagating hype and misleading people about state of technology and needs to learn the basics, like a high quality paint job and details MATTER to a luxury car (not the dreams of summoning your car like a horse).

And honestly this whiplash obsession with kiddy racer speed needs to be replaced by an actual drivetrain that balances ride and dynamics. I can see Tesla being a very successful company making all kinds of BEVs from Audi/BMW level sedans to real compelling two seater sport cars (no not rockets that are so heavy they will fly off the road and can only sustain speed for five minutes).

And I wonder how many more Tesla sedans could be sold in the US if there was a small ReX option available a-la i3 (but actually in a useful configuration) and it removed any final range anxiety. I don't mean a-la Volt for extended drive, but to know you can get to another charging station or get home for that last 30-50 miles.

Obviously it is not the magic company valued higher than major car makers, but it could exist and thrive as an actual small car company valued accordingly.
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post #3 of 601 (permalink) Old 05-20-2019, 12:31 PM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by epirali View Post
But I have always believed it was too much hype and self propagating delusion and I am afraid the bubble is bursting.
I'm hesitant to call it the end, but this looks pretty bad.

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Originally Posted by epirali View Post
I believe there is a real car company somewhere in there (no it is NOT a tech company, it is NOT a startup, let's stop pretending). It needs real management, focus on quality, service, polishing the brand, creating a REAL luxury BEV. It doesn't need "missions" and it needs to stop propagating hype and misleading people about state of technology and needs to learn the basics, like a high quality paint job and details MATTER to a luxury car (not the dreams of summoning your car like a horse).
The real car company is already there. It needs to stop paying lip service to an overgrown child.

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And honestly this whiplash obsession with kiddy racer speed needs to be replaced by an actual drivetrain that balances ride and dynamics. I can see Tesla being a very successful company making all kinds of BEVs from Audi/BMW level sedans to real compelling two seater sport cars (no not rockets that are so heavy they will fly off the road and can only sustain speed for five minutes).
Excellent points. Refer to my previous comment on an immature leader.

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And I wonder how many more Tesla sedans could be sold in the US if there was a small ReX option available a-la i3 (but actually in a useful configuration) and it removed any final range anxiety. I don't mean a-la Volt for extended drive, but to know you can get to another charging station or get home for that last 30-50 miles.
Yes, EXACTLY like a Gen 1 Volt. It's the genius car of this century. I ask the wife whose daily driver it would be about this or that car. The Kia Niro was just highlighted on the Motor Trend channel. She wants the gas option. I can't fault her for it.

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Obviously it is not the magic company valued higher than major car makers, but it could exist and thrive as an actual small car company valued accordingly.
It's far enough along to survive if someone would stop doing bullsh*t autopilot events, and start designing cars that don't all look the same. Model Y was a huge letdown. There will be no pickup (you heard it here). The semi is unlikely. Where's that roadster 2?

Too much bullsh*t, not enough results. This is the fault of one man who can't be controlled, or control himself.
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post #4 of 601 (permalink) Old 05-20-2019, 03:17 PM
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Drop Musk. Get real management. I know somebody with tremendous experience and skill who joined the company, super excited, and then left shortly after because of all the horrible dysfunction and lies. I'm getting nervous about warranty support for my powerwalls.
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post #5 of 601 (permalink) Old 05-20-2019, 03:56 PM
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Ouch.

On the other hand, publicly traded companies have some options to explore for survival. Chapter 11 anyone? American airlines for example?

Even at $100 a share TSLA would likely be too much for a hostile takeover or a friendly acquisition.

It will stick around for a while I think. Remember Apple? And I agree that that 'while' would best be spent on quality and reputation instead of hype. If they do go into Chapter 11 at some point, that's what will have to happen, along with a change in leadership.
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post #6 of 601 (permalink) Old 05-20-2019, 04:21 PM
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Remember Apple? And I agree that that 'while' would best be spent on quality and reputation instead of hype. If they do go into Chapter 11 at some point, that's what will have to happen, along with a change in leadership.
But part of Steve Jobs genius (yes he had flaws but people don't give him enough credit as a business man) was to hire exceptional managers and designers and let them do their thing. And that is why Apple became what it is and why it manages to coast along after him.

I don't see Steve Jobs having told Cook he doesn't know anything or ever having said "I must sign off on every purchase."
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post #7 of 601 (permalink) Old 05-20-2019, 04:55 PM
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Drop Musk. Get real management. I know somebody with tremendous experience and skill who joined the company, super excited, and then left shortly after because of all the horrible dysfunction and lies. I'm getting nervous about warranty support for my powerwalls.
Exact reason I didn't consider powerwalls. Combined with too many posts online about users that have issues with their powerwalls and then taking months to get them resolved, and in the meantime, they pay for the system and don't get compensated for the lost power they pay to the utility. I have a guarantee from my installer that I will be covered during warranty coverage for the first 10 years on the battery.

Tesla is a company that is trying to do too many things just okay instead of a few things great. Their leadership is pulling them apart bit by bit and will be the demise of them until they get a real independent board that smacks them with a wake up call about bringing value back to the shareholders while trying to be great in what they should focus on.
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post #8 of 601 (permalink) Old 05-20-2019, 05:20 PM
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Exact reason I didn't consider powerwalls. Combined with too many posts online about users that have issues with their powerwalls and then taking months to get them resolved, and in the meantime, they pay for the system and don't get compensated for the lost power they pay to the utility. I have a guarantee from my installer that I will be covered during warranty coverage for the first 10 years on the battery.

Tesla is a company that is trying to do too many things just okay instead of a few things great. Their leadership is pulling them apart bit by bit and will be the demise of them until they get a real independent board that smacks them with a wake up call about bringing value back to the shareholders while trying to be great in what they should focus on.
Our system took forever to get certified by the power company, but it was already one anyway since we had solar running. That said, as a product, Powerwalls are simply fantastic. We've had a few power outages, and while our neighbors are futzing with generators or sitting in the dark, we're taking showers and running the heat pump. On neighbor did a roll your own system, but it only runs have of his house and doesn't charge off solar when the power is out. Meanwhile, I could go pull the main breaker right now and live all summer, assuming I charged the EV only some from home.
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post #9 of 601 (permalink) Old 05-20-2019, 05:42 PM
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There are other reasons I didn't pick powerwalls: self control/programmability, integration with Solar to create a micro grid which is what I have, installation cabinet instead of on wall, depth of discharge/charge cycles, and other factors that weighted into my decision. Granted some people are happy, but I was looking at will this battery still serve me in 20 years and give me a better payback. Tesla is very coy about the battery chemistry in the powerwall and the usage scenarios that allow full warranty coverage. I picked a Sonnen battery because it is the battery for the zombie apocalypse, can't say the same for the powerwall. The Pika came in second for me for reference.
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post #10 of 601 (permalink) Old 05-20-2019, 06:44 PM
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I figure if the zombies come, I'm dead anyway. I'd rather have everything automated and easy. If I wanted to be totally off grid forever, I'd go with nickel iron maybe. Fifteen years from now, I'll probably be in a different house anyway.
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