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post #591 of 642 (permalink) Old 10-10-2019, 12:14 PM
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The increase in trade ins can be simply because people are buying more volumes and want an EV, it doesn't correlate to Tesla is taking their sales away. And let's wait until Audi and BMW have their own EV versions.

But hey listen you believe what you want to believe as Tesla hemorrhages money. I can buy you as many fiddles as you like while Rome burns...
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post #592 of 642 (permalink) Old 10-10-2019, 08:06 PM
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Power went out last night at 11:30pm. I didn't even notice as the Power Walls kicked on. No blinking clocks or anything. Meanwhile the neighbor has his loud ass generator running, but at least it's a few hundred feet away. Solar charged during the day until it filled the batteries. Now we're at 95% with the little remaining solar feeding the house (in a canyon so it ends early). We're weathering this fire hazard outage pretty well. I'm leaning towards getting an M3P, but I have not a single regret over these Power Walls. The best product Tesla makes by far.
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post #593 of 642 (permalink) Old 10-10-2019, 08:18 PM
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Power went out last night at 11:30pm. I didn't even notice as the Power Walls kicked on. No blinking clocks or anything. Meanwhile the neighbor has his loud ass generator running, but at least it's a few hundred feet away. Solar charged during the day until it filled the batteries. Now we're at 95% with the little remaining solar feeding the house (in a canyon so it ends early). We're weathering this fire hazard outage pretty well. I'm leaning towards getting an M3P, but I have not a single regret over these Power Walls. The best product Tesla makes by far.
Just having a battery may not be enough to sustain you thru an outage. The capacity of one Powerwall will not last an entire days usage in an average house that consumes just about 1kWh. Solar does not provide enough juice the rest of the hours. If you have two batteries, then you could be covered. Also is you don't get to power your entire house with the standard Powerwall configuration where you only get critical loads. Your neighbor on the other hand is likely powering his entire house for a fraction of the cost of a Powerwall. And considering the power goes out maybe 1-2 times a year, it is not economical to say you get a Powerwall for power outages. Getting it for time of use arbitrage is a different story though.
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post #594 of 642 (permalink) Old 10-10-2019, 09:28 PM
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Just having a battery may not be enough to sustain you thru an outage. The capacity of one Powerwall will not last an entire days usage in an average house that consumes just about 1kWh. Solar does not provide enough juice the rest of the hours. If you have two batteries, then you could be covered. Also is you don't get to power your entire house with the standard Powerwall configuration where you only get critical loads. Your neighbor on the other hand is likely powering his entire house for a fraction of the cost of a Powerwall. And considering the power goes out maybe 1-2 times a year, it is not economical to say you get a Powerwall for power outages. Getting it for time of use arbitrage is a different story though.
We time shift some, reducing our costs. We have four power walls. We have historically had 5-8 outages/year. Usually 4-12 hours long. This one's longer. Might be a few days. 94% right now. Next morning, I estimate 75%. A bit lower if everybody showers. no need for heat at the moment, thankfully.

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post #595 of 642 (permalink) Old 10-11-2019, 01:16 PM
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I priced out a proper generator, one that could run for a couple of weeks in case of catastrophic grid failure. After adding a 1000 gallon propane tank on an engineered concrete pad, installation, permits, maintenance, and propane itself then subtracting the Powerwall federal tax rebate, the prices were similar. I'd also need propane deliveries after 2-3 weeks on a 1000 gallon tank. Who knows how well that will go. There are several old bridges between me and the highway, and a even if they're intact after a quake, are they going to be intact enough for a 30,000 lbs propane truck?
The big advantage of the propane generator is the ability to charge the EV or EVs, but then if I'm off grid, I'll charge somewhere else.

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post #596 of 642 (permalink) Old 10-12-2019, 05:59 PM
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I priced out a proper generator, one that could run for a couple of weeks in case of catastrophic grid failure. After adding a 1000 gallon propane tank on an engineered concrete pad, installation, permits, maintenance, and propane itself then subtracting the Powerwall federal tax rebate, the prices were similar. I'd also need propane deliveries after 2-3 weeks on a 1000 gallon tank. Who knows how well that will go. There are several old bridges between me and the highway, and a even if they're intact after a quake, are they going to be intact enough for a 30,000 lbs propane truck?
The big advantage of the propane generator is the ability to charge the EV or EVs, but then if I'm off grid, I'll charge somewhere else.
I installed a generator that can power the entire house almost 20 years ago. The 500 gallon propane tank is good for about a week's worth of full time operation. But in an extended outage I would turn the generator off overnight and for a few hours mid-day when it wasn't needed. Our PG&E outage was about 20 hours so that step wasn't necessary this time.

If I was doing this now it would definitely be with Powerwalls. AFAIK the Tesla gateway is the only one that allows you to hook up the batteries in parallel in order to get more amperage when you are running off batteries. The other gateways are limited to about 25A @240V so you can't run air conditioners.
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post #597 of 642 (permalink) Old 10-12-2019, 06:09 PM
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The increase in trade ins can be simply because people are buying more volumes and want an EV, it doesn't correlate to Tesla is taking their sales away. And let's wait until Audi and BMW have their own EV versions.

But hey listen you believe what you want to believe as Tesla hemorrhages money. I can buy you as many fiddles as you like while Rome burns...
BMW and Audi both have EV's - the i3 and the e-tron. After filling the initial backlog e-tron sales have declined from 856 in May to 434 in September. Meanwhile there is more than two months worth of inventory on Audi dealer lots and discounts up to $7500. This for a car model that has only been available for delivery for 6 months.

While you refuse to believe that Tesla is taking away sales from BMW, listen to what the president of the 5th largest US auto dealership group had to say earlier this year:
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One of the largest U.S. auto dealers just had a rough quarter selling BMWs, and a top executive said Tesla Inc. played a major role.

Sonic Automotive Inc., the fifth-largest U.S. dealership group, reported a disappointing fourth-quarter profit on Wednesday. Jeff Dyke, Sonic’s president, said “challenging” times for BMW AG and Honda Motor Co. were partly to blame. Many of Sonic’s stores selling those companies’ brands are in California, the home of Tesla’s headquarters and by far the largest market for the Model 3 sedan.

When asked by an analyst whether Tesla factored in BMW’s challenges, Dyke answered on Sonic’s earnings call: “There’s no question.”

“I’ve spent a lot of time in manufacturing meetings, and five years ago, Tesla was just not even a real big topic,” Dyke said. “Today, it’s at the top of everybody’s board, and it needs to be.”
https://www.autonews.com/dealers/tes...-bmw-takes-hit
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post #598 of 642 (permalink) Old 10-12-2019, 07:35 PM
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I installed a generator that can power the entire house almost 20 years ago. The 500 gallon propane tank is good for about a week's worth of full time operation. But in an extended outage I would turn the generator off overnight and for a few hours mid-day when it wasn't needed. Our PG&E outage was about 20 hours so that step wasn't necessary this time.

If I was doing this now it would definitely be with Powerwalls. AFAIK the Tesla gateway is the only one that allows you to hook up the batteries in parallel in order to get more amperage when you are running off batteries. The other gateways are limited to about 25A @240V so you can't run air conditioners.
Not the only one. Both Pika (now Generac) and Sonnen allow for higher discharge and micro grid set up on up to 200amps. Sonnen is limited to one unit maxed at 20kW, Pika can have 1-4 units at 17.5kW each. I have the Sonnen set up in a micro grid, so I can run my entire home off Solar plus battery plus generator (which can be powered by natural gas or propane). I am limited to 12kW peak/10kW running in microgrid (33A @ 240V from just the battery), but this is more than enough to run all my loads plus one of my two AC units. My steady average state draw is 1-1.5kW, so this gives me lots of freedom on what loads to run or not in the remaining 8.5kW.
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post #599 of 642 (permalink) Old 10-12-2019, 10:07 PM
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My goal was to go all electric, avoiding the hassle of a generator. Our biggest load, other than EVs, are the water heater and pumps. We have a second water heater that uses a tiny amount of propane, so if things really get bad, we switch off one and use the other bathroom for showers.

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post #600 of 642 (permalink) Old 10-12-2019, 10:34 PM
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My goal was to go all electric, avoiding the hassle of a generator. Our biggest load, other than EVs, are the water heater and pumps. We have a second water heater that uses a tiny amount of propane, so if things really get bad, we switch off one and use the other bathroom for showers.
Sounds like you both live in areas that experience more outages and are more remote than us city dwellers. Hence the different criteria for your needs and decision making. I'm not knocking your choices, just conveying the different approach took. We have natural gas, I don't even think a large propane tank on my property would be allowed by our HOA .
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