TSLA in trouble - Page 50 - Jaguar I-Pace EV400 Forum
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post #491 of 550 (permalink) Old 08-29-2019, 03:27 AM
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@dennis : lets try this again. It USED TO BE there was almost no inventory because demand outstripped build and you waited 6 weeks to get your car (or more). This meant minimal inventory, on lots, in transit, etc. Now there is actually inventory available and build times are very short. This means there is now excess capacity.

Without repeating a dubious theory about “late binding” can you please provide a positive explanation for this? Because unless a company overshoots and increases production ABOVE demand this should not have happened to a “non traditional” non dealer stock approach. And please don’t use other companies as they all use the dealer approach and MUST have stock to place on lots.

By same logic shipping cars to Europe does not mean sales, it simply means inventory is being moved to another country. Only sales means sales.

I also agree with others here that the term luxury and Tesla are not related in anyway. The design, quality and execution of Tesla is barely hitting mid-grade cars. In fact I have seen more “luxury” elements in a Mazda and Hyundai lately than in any Tesla I have driven. I know besides numb driving characteristics this is the other major element that has kept me from buying probably 2 or 3 Teslas over the past few years. When I compare the build/design quality of most German cars at 50k range to a M3 the M3 falls very short. Sadly comparing the same 50k German car to a Model S and X shows how inferior these much more expensive cars really are.
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post #492 of 550 (permalink) Old 08-29-2019, 04:20 AM
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Another issue may simply be that after selling the "growth" story for so long as some mythical reason why Tesla has such high valuation the now soft demand is starting to box them in. They finally have some base level of production they set as a goal, because they have to make/sell more and more units every year to maintain the valuation. Yet with a softening demand this will either lead to inventory, OR they have to reduce production which will immediately show the halt in growth.

I think the not being profitable but shipping more M3s is still a preferable position. It still leads to falling stock prices and eventual collapse, but it may be slower than if they actually started reducing production numbers. Shipping units overseas and moving to dealers would at least delay or allow "fuzzing" these reports and may help a little with "impulse" or pressure purchase as the car can be had instantly.

But this may be interesting income center for them. They already have access to all your driving data anyway. I for one will not participate in any insurance program that has access to my driving data from any company, even if it "saves me money."

"Tesla (TSLA) introduces Tesla Insurance"

https://www.streetinsider.com/Corpor.../15862649.html
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post #493 of 550 (permalink) Old 08-29-2019, 06:35 AM
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I sit (I am sitting) corrected:

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/08...in-california/

“It's not clear how Tesla can profitably undercut the premiums of traditional insurance companies. Those companies are experts at gathering and analyzing data to estimate the likely costs of insuring vehicles. Tesla obviously knows more than anyone else about how its cars are designed, but it's not clear that Tesla has dramatically better data than insurance companies about how often its cars crash—or how expensive they are to repair.

One way Tesla could seek a competitive advantage would be to harvest data from vehicles about individual customers' driving habits. That could allow the company to offer lower premiums to customers with a safer driving profile.

But Tesla explicitly disavows this approach. "Tesla Insurance does not use nor record vehicle data, such as GPS or vehicle camera footage, when pricing insurance," the company writes.”
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post #494 of 550 (permalink) Old 08-29-2019, 07:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jsimon7777 View Post
The interior of a 100k S or X is the equivalent of a 50k stripped 5-series from 2008. Why the **** do they do that?
Because they can
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post #495 of 550 (permalink) Old 08-29-2019, 10:45 AM
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Originally Posted by epirali View Post
I sit (I am sitting) corrected:

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/08...in-california/

“It's not clear how Tesla can profitably undercut the premiums of traditional insurance companies. Those companies are experts at gathering and analyzing data to estimate the likely costs of insuring vehicles. Tesla obviously knows more than anyone else about how its cars are designed, but it's not clear that Tesla has dramatically better data than insurance companies about how often its cars crash—or how expensive they are to repair.

One way Tesla could seek a competitive advantage would be to harvest data from vehicles about individual customers' driving habits. That could allow the company to offer lower premiums to customers with a safer driving profile.

But Tesla explicitly disavows this approach. "Tesla Insurance does not use nor record vehicle data, such as GPS or vehicle camera footage, when pricing insurance," the company writes.”
There are two additional way Tesla could use anti-competitive techniques to lower their rates or better still, increase profitability at competitive rates:

1) By putting Tesla Insured cars to the front of repair and spares queues, they can save a lot of money on rental loaners, and they often own their own loaner fleets which are purposed as MFR plates which are cheaper to procure.

2) By having a built in database of who is a Tesla owner and where, they can cherry pick advertising focus via cheap Email and rates knowing what the risk is in different areas.

3) Cost of spares and availability. This is what has stopped many states from letting automakers package insurance because it can harm the customer.
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post #496 of 550 (permalink) Old 08-29-2019, 10:46 AM
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IIHS comparison of insurance risk for Teslas:
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post #497 of 550 (permalink) Old 08-29-2019, 03:28 PM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by McRat View Post
IIHS comparison of insurance risk for Teslas:
Ouch. That's pretty serious.

TSLA: $221.17

Looks like this may be the normal price now.
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post #498 of 550 (permalink) Old 08-29-2019, 09:37 PM
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Yes please post when Tesla hits 45+ days inventory.
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post #499 of 550 (permalink) Old 08-30-2019, 12:37 AM
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Originally Posted by epirali View Post
@dennis : lets try this again. It USED TO BE there was almost no inventory because demand outstripped build and you waited 6 weeks to get your car (or more). This meant minimal inventory, on lots, in transit, etc. Now there is actually inventory available and build times are very short. This means there is now excess capacity.

Without repeating a dubious theory about “late binding” can you please provide a positive explanation for this? Because unless a company overshoots and increases production ABOVE demand this should not have happened to a “non traditional” non dealer stock approach. And please don’t use other companies as they all use the dealer approach and MUST have stock to place on lots.
.
You are refusing to accept that Tesla has changed from a "build to order, deliver in 4-6 weeks" approach when they sold 2000 cars/week to a "build for inventory, deliver in 2 weeks or less" approach selling 7500 cars/week. Refusing to accept that allows you to claim that Tesla has excess capacity because they can deliver faster.

"Late binding" is not a dubious theory - it is what Tesla actually does. Here is how Tesla explained it in the Q1 Update Letter:

Quote:
Unlike Model S and Model X, we do not build Model 3 vehicles to order. Rather, given its significantly higher volume, we build different variants of Model 3 in batches (including regional versions), and every vehicle that leaves the factory initially becomes inventory. While in inventory, those vehicles are then matched to a specific order made by each customer
Did you get that? They build for inventory. Every Model 3 that leaves the factory is an inventory car. Later it is matched to a customer order. This explains why you can find a Model 3 in inventory - because that is the only way Tesla sells them! In fact, Tesla extended the order-to-VIN matching process to S/X in Q2 as detailed in the Q2 Production and Deliveries report.

Quote:
Originally Posted by epirali View Post
I also agree with others here that the term luxury and Tesla are not related in anyway. The design, quality and execution of Tesla is barely hitting mid-grade cars. In fact I have seen more “luxury” elements in a Mazda and Hyundai lately than in any Tesla I have driven. I know besides numb driving characteristics this is the other major element that has kept me from buying probably 2 or 3 Teslas over the past few years. When I compare the build/design quality of most German cars at 50k range to a M3 the M3 falls very short. Sadly comparing the same 50k German car to a Model S and X shows how inferior these much more expensive cars really are.
You are entitled to your opinion about what is or isn't a luxury car. But the industry authorities like Kelley Blue Book disagree with you when it comes to Tesla. And so do those buyers who are purchasing Tesla's instead of Bimmers, Mercs, etc. Please read that report. And then explain how all these people surveyed are wrong when they list Tesla as the top brand in 7 of the 12 evaluation criteria for luxury cars.
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post #500 of 550 (permalink) Old 08-30-2019, 01:34 AM
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Originally Posted by jsimon7777 View Post
Tesla is cross shopped by luxury buyers who are also into tech.
Teslas are not a luxury car by traditional terms since they don't have any actual luxuries. They do, however, cost as much as luxury cars do. They're a luxury, but they're not luxurious. Not even slightly. The interior of a 100k S or X is the equivalent of a 50k stripped 5-series from 2008. Why the **** do they do that? SMH.

Tesla doesn't really release proper numbers, so it's hard to compare them. I doubt they're producing cars at the same high rate they were late last year. They fudge their numbers so it's impossible to tell.
Here are some highlights from the Q2 Kelley Blue Book Brand Watch consumer survey for luxury vehicles.

https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-in...m_content=News

Quote:
Article Highlights
  • Tesla was the luxury vehicle story again in Q2 for shopping, consumer perception and sales.
  • Tesla accounted for all of the gains in Q2 luxury registrations. Without Tesla, Q2 luxury sales would have fallen.
  • Tesla Model 3 was the most-considered model by luxury shoppers in Q2 for the first time. Tesla Model S makes the Top 15 most-shopped models. The brand ranked sixth most-shopped luxury brand.
Here is a key graphic from that survey. It shows that Tesla ranks first in 7 of the 12 luxury factors of importance and second in two others. Note the other brands Tesla is being compared against. Apparently these consumers have different evaluation criteria than the commenters here.

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