TSLA in trouble - Page 22 - Jaguar I-Pace EV400 Forum
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post #211 of 642 (permalink) Old 07-01-2019, 12:37 PM
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With all of these stories out there I'm having to prepare an extra large crow repast to serve up later this week when Tesla announces record deliveries for Q2.

But of course then the bear narrative will change to profitability. And we'll have to wait another few weeks to see who is right on that front.
Exactly, narrative is PROFITABILITY. And long term being a KEY word there, not for a blip. The posts above are showing how this will be harder and harder as more and more competition appears.

edit: If you take out Teslarati (hehe) and Elektrek almost all other news stories are negative, but those two seem to "flood" positive constant news into most streams...hmmmm....

Last edited by epirali; 07-01-2019 at 12:41 PM.
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post #212 of 642 (permalink) Old 07-01-2019, 12:53 PM
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Due to the marketing plan of the Model 3, it has become very difficult to predict global EV demand. By taking orders so many years in advance, it's difficult to tell how many buyers delayed their EV purchases awaiting the M3.
It has become obvious that there was never really a peak demand of 400,000 units. Before there were 100,000 cars, they were stockpiling. Tesla promised Model 3 LR RWDs in as little as 3 days when that was the only model.

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post #213 of 642 (permalink) Old 07-02-2019, 02:29 AM
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Due to the marketing plan of the Model 3, it has become very difficult to predict global EV demand. By taking orders so many years in advance, it's difficult to tell how many buyers delayed their EV purchases awaiting the M3.
It has become obvious that there was never really a peak demand of 400,000 units. Before there were 100,000 cars, they were stockpiling. Tesla promised Model 3 LR RWDs in as little as 3 days when that was the only model.
I read those same comments about Model S and Model X as they ramped, i.e. once the backlog is exhausted the true demand will be much less than the advance reservations.

- Model S had 20,000 advance reservations. It had consistent deliveries of about 50,000/year for 5 years
- Model X had 33,000 advance reservations. It has ramped to 50,000 deliveries per year
- Model 3 had 455,000 advance reservations.

We won't know what the true annual demand of Model 3 is until all variants are being delivered to all geographies. That should happen by the end of 2019 as the RHD countries are served and the SR+ makes it way to Europe and China. And Model 3 has an open field as there are still no direct competitors in the $40K-$60K premium sedan market.
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post #214 of 642 (permalink) Old 07-02-2019, 02:33 AM
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Exactly, narrative is PROFITABILITY. And long term being a KEY word there, not for a blip. The posts above are showing how this will be harder and harder as more and more competition appears.
You do realize that NO auto manufacturer makes profits on EV's. GM, Audi, Jaguar, FCA have all admitted that they lose money on every EV they currently make.

The company that is closest to profitability with their EV's is Tesla. VW even had to delay their future MEB platform after getting the results of their teardown of the Model 3. They realized they needed to take an additional $3000 out of the platform cost in order to be competitive with Tesla.

So if you want to talk about profitability you need to do it on an apples-to-apples comparison: Tesla vs. Big Auto's EV's. I think you know who will win when a fair comparison is done.
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post #215 of 642 (permalink) Old 07-03-2019, 11:53 AM
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@dennis : I actually find it interesting how adapt you are at misdirection, not sure its on purpose, but your "branch jumping" would usually confuse people.

Whether EVs are profitable or not for other manufacturers has nothing to do with the long term outlook of Tesla. This is smoke and mirrors talking. Other manufacturers use EVs either for R&D and/or to gain credit for the rest of their lineup which is profitable. No Tesla investor nor the reality of a profitable business cares why and how GM sells Bolts. See what you were trying to do there?

I am not comparing anything to anything, I am saying Tesla is in trouble in its basic fundamentals. Even after an an impressive quantity of units "delivered" the Model S/X sales remained much lower than before, and this is where the margins really were. The shares have reacted ok, but no breakout yet and this is before we see the actual numbers. The sales numbers are the best part of this quarter in my guess.

And BTW the "success" is really showing in departures like this:

Reports: 2 More Tesla Execs Depart

https://www.benzinga.com/news/19/07/...a-execs-depart

Do you think their departure should be compared to departures at other manufacturers? Because Jonathan Ives just left Apple, so this is probably cool. Sorry couldn't help myself.
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post #216 of 642 (permalink) Old 07-03-2019, 12:02 PM
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And as for mix and profitability:

Tesla: Europe Q2 Shows Cracks

https://seekingalpha.com/article/427...2-shows-cracks

Most major analysts are staying negative on Tesla shares despite ‘impressive’ deliveries

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/03/wall...-earnings.html

Tesla’s deliveries beat boosts stock, but not the sentiment of Wall Street analysts

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/te...sts-2019-07-03

If only GM was doing worst then maybe we could compare "apples to apples?"

General Motors (GM) Gains As Market Dips: What You Should Know

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gener...215009841.html

Last edited by epirali; 07-03-2019 at 12:05 PM.
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post #217 of 642 (permalink) Old 07-03-2019, 12:11 PM
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I still think the relevant issues are very simply business model + product + market share + sales.


If EVs are a viable business model, it appears to me Tesla is winning (successful).


Focusing on near-term profits during a massive development (expenditure) phase is ridiculous (Cf. FedEx, Amazon, Netflix et al.)
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post #218 of 642 (permalink) Old 07-03-2019, 01:12 PM Thread Starter
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Please to explain this thing, "viable".
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post #219 of 642 (permalink) Old 07-03-2019, 01:17 PM
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I still think the relevant issues are very simply business model + product + market share + sales.


If EVs are a viable business model, it appears to me Tesla is winning (successful).


Focusing on near-term profits during a massive development (expenditure) phase is ridiculous (Cf. FedEx, Amazon, Netflix et al.)
Losing money for 16 years is only a business model that can be supported by government subsidies or Ponzi financing.

Federal Express Corp is too different to use as an analogy. Yale's business professor gave the founder's idea a "C" because Educated People said "hub air freight with computerized distribution" was not a viable concept. EVs are embraced by university professors.
FedEx did not use tax money. Tesla used tons.
In 5 years it was profitable and stayed that way. It nearly folded two years after startup in 1973 due to the fuel crisis. Tesla started out seriously during a upturn in the auto market.
Amazon took 6.5 years to show 12 months of continuous profits, but they were not losing mass amounts of money either.
Netflix nearly collapsed during the downturn of 2001, but recovered and made a profit in 5 years.

So far, Tesla has not made money for a 12 month span.

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Last edited by McRat; 07-03-2019 at 01:23 PM.
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post #220 of 642 (permalink) Old 07-04-2019, 12:49 AM
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Originally Posted by epirali View Post
@dennis : I actually find it interesting how adapt you are at misdirection, not sure its on purpose, but your "branch jumping" would usually confuse people.

Whether EVs are profitable or not for other manufacturers has nothing to do with the long term outlook of Tesla. This is smoke and mirrors talking. Other manufacturers use EVs either for R&D and/or to gain credit for the rest of their lineup which is profitable. No Tesla investor nor the reality of a profitable business cares why and how GM sells Bolts. See what you were trying to do there?
What I was trying to do there was to show you that measuring Tesla financials against the financials of established automakers is a fools errand. You can't expect the P&L and Balance Sheet of a company growing 60% per year at $20B in a new market segment to look the same as a company growing 5% at $100B in an established market segment.

As for your concern about the long term outlook for Tesla, please answer a couple of questions for me:
1) Do you think the future of automobiles is in ICE vehicles or BEVs?
2) Do you believe that as volumes increase and technology matures that because of their simplicity EVs will be able to be built more profitably than ICEs?

If you answered yes to both of those questions then you shouldn't have concerns about the long term financial outlook for Tesla.

One final comment. Stop the personal attacks. They should be unnecessary if your thesis is strong enough.

Last edited by dennis; 07-04-2019 at 12:55 AM.
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